Your competitor offers 30 per cent off. You still need to make money.

The same discount can mean two very different businesses.

One brand may have high product margins, natural repurchase and customers already waiting. Another has to spend on acquisition for almost every order and has much thinner economics. Selling in the same category does not make 30 per cent equally sensible for both.

That is why I keep returning to calculating your own economics. Average order value, product cost, repurchase and acquisition need including. Only then can we discuss which offer is possible and what the campaign should do.

A company that normally avoids discounts may also face a different expectation from a brand almost always running a campaign. A percentage means something in relation to what the customer has already learned about you.

A 20 per cent discount takes more than 20 per cent of what is left.

Fredrik gives a simplified calculation in the conversation. The product sells for SEK 1,000 and costs SEK 400. That leaves SEK 600 before the next cost layer. Reduce the price to SEK 800 and product cost remains 400. That leaves SEK 400.

The discount was 20 per cent. The amount after product cost fell by a third. That is easy to understand with the numbers side by side, and much easier to miss when the team celebrates sales volume.

The same example adds SEK 100 in order costs and acquisition improving from SEK 250 to SEK 150. The remaining amount still falls from SEK 250 to SEK 150 per order. More efficient advertising therefore does not automatically mean better campaign economics.

This is an illustrative example with simplified costs, rather than a standard calculation for every company. Your actual model needs consistent VAT and revenue definitions throughout and must include what really changes as volume rises.

The campaign is not finished when the order is placed.

As volume rises, picking, packing, support and returns can change too. Extra staff and work outside normal hours need not cost the same as an ordinary week. That applies even if the ad account looks better.

A return also has its own timeline. You may have paid to acquire the customer and ship the order, only to receive the product back after the campaign or season ends. The next sale is then no certainty.

In the episode, we also discuss campaigns moving purchases between periods. An existing customer stocking up far ahead has placed a real order. But the whole order is not necessarily sales that would otherwise never have happened.

Follow the campaign after the sales peak: what remained when returns arrived, what share were new customers and how many bought again? Use the same periods and definitions when comparing.

Help the customer choose things that work together.

A better campaign need not begin with a bigger discount across the entire range. We discuss ready-made packages and bundles that help the customer choose products that work together. That can be easier to understand than assembling everything herself in a stressful period.

Upselling also needs careful placement. In the conversation, we distinguish helping the customer in the cart from interrupting her late in checkout. A new product suggestion can create another research task just when the purchase was about to finish.

Test the placement in your own store. Does the suggestion help the customer complete the purchase, or does she leave checkout to investigate another product? That is the outcome needed for the next choice.

A cheap lead is still not a purchase.

Leads before Black Week take up a large part of the episode. An email address can provide more opportunities to communicate when the campaign starts. But communicating the campaign too early can also make someone postpone a purchase she would otherwise make now.

I describe how we have worked with leads, while making one limitation clear: a better year does not prove lead advertising caused it. The offer, bundles, discount and other things may have changed together.

The cost therefore needs understanding through what happens after collection. How many become customers? What do their purchases leave? How long before the money comes back? A low cost per email address does not alone show the work was profitable.

Customer value over time can be relevant, but the period needs to make sense. There is a large difference between a repeat purchase soon and a possible purchase far away when the company needs to finance the work today.

A bestseller and a seasonal bundle are different inventory decisions.

We end operational planning with inventory. A product that keeps selling after the campaign has a different risk from a bundle whose relevance ends with the season. Treating them alike makes the calculation unnecessarily blunt.

Even a good evergreen product can tie up too much money, though. The company needs to finance marketing, operations and its next decision. Asking only how many units we hope to sell is therefore insufficient.

Also ask when goods must be ordered, when they are paid for and what happens if the outcome is lower or higher. A sold-out bestseller and excessive seasonal stock can be two different ways to lose business.

Black Week comes back. That is actually an advantage: evaluate immediately afterwards, document what worked and prepare the next round with that knowledge intact. Then next September need not start with the same guessing game.